Is the crisis spreading?

Niall Ferguson wrote in this morning’s FT about how the crucial aspect of the economic slowdown will be when it becomes a genuinely global phenomenon:            

“No, this is not the Great Depression 2.0; the Fed and the Treasury are seeing to that. But, as in the 1930s, the critical phase is not the US phase. It is when the crisis goes global that the term “credit crunch” will no longer suffice.” 

Evidence of the severity of the crisis spreading outside the United States is already becoming easier to find.  One of the most worrying developments has been the news today that UK home repossessions (though still only affecting a very small percentage of homeowners) have risen by 48% over the last year.  Up until now it has been possible to say that the worst symptoms of the crisis – such as repossessions – were only hitting the US.  Will this stay true for much longer?  

Combining this with the IMF’s downgrading of UK growth predictions on Wednesday it looks like our situation will get much worse before it gets better.  A totally global recession may not be on the cards now – but is it only a matter of time?
 

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