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Peter Hoskin

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Monday, 15th December 2008

Knife Crime Statistics

Tim Worstall 2:02pm

Yes, it's pretty bad when we can no longer trust the statistics our own government quotes at us.

However, there's something even more wrong with what's been going on. That is, not just the, umm, economy with the truth but rather the entire logic behind the statistics that were being counted. Read that second link in full to see what is being said but in short, we don't know whether this is just random noise, reversion to the mean or the effect of a policy. Because, sadly, no one is collecting the statistics to see if it is one of those three.

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Windfall taxes yet again

Tim Worstall 1:57pm

Yes, another trip around the houses with the economically illiterate.

Around 100 backbenchers are preparing to sign a Commons motion demanding "aggressive action" against firms which have failed to pass on the benefits of lower oil prices.

Sigh. When prices were rising the fuel and energy companies did not rise prices as far or as fast as their raw materials costs were going up. Some of it they absorbed into their margins, other parts they assumed (correctly) would just be a short term thing.

So now that prices are falling of course they're not reducing their...

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The Role of Vitamin D in Beta-Cell Function

Tim Worstall 1:34pm

A Ph.D. thesis as expressed in interpretive dance, via Dan Drezner..

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Friday, 12th December 2008

Will the White House bail out Detroit?

Felix Salmon of Portfolio.com Felix Salmon of Portfolio.com 6:12pm

The ball's in the White House's court; there's no chance of Congress passing a Detroit bailout bill before it reconvenes next year. The White House has TARP funds, but only $15 billion remains from the first $350 billion tranche; that's barely enough for Detroit, and in any case it's needed as to backstop Treasury commitments to the financial sector. So here's one question:

What does this all mean for the probability that Paulson will get the second $350 billion?

On the one hand, if Congress won't give Detroit a fraction of that amount, it's really hard...

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Misunderstanding bookies

Tim Worstall 4:32pm

The country’s bookmakers are pretty confident that the voters of Greater Manchester are about to kick the plans for a congestion charge into touch. You don’t see very many poor bookies.

So unless they have made their worst call since making Liverpool overwhelming favourites to beat Wimbledon in the 1988 Cup Final, the last rites of road pricing are about to be pronounced.

That's a horrible misunderstanding of what a bookie actually does. Tehy most certainly do not take a view on the liklihood of such an event happening. They simply reflect the way in which...

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The Spectator Parliamentarian Awards
Weekly update

City Life

Eric Ellis 29/12/2008

Lessons for life from the Crash of ’73

David Young 12/12/2008

Thought for the day

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Investment

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